The SCO Summit & Beijing’s Military Parade

The following commentary appeared in Business Day - click to access the article.

Part 1:

BEIJING - Not a great deal of media coverage was given to the recent Summit in Tianjin and the large military parade in Beijing. These are significant events that offer a glimpse into what tomorrow’s geopolitical reality might look like.

As Americans focused on the start of their Football Season, China orchestrated the most significant diplomatic gathering in recent times. It is safe to assume that few Americans, especially those on Capitol Hill in Washington D.C., paid much attention to what took place. However, the significance of the carefully orchestrated SCO Summit 2025 in Tianjin and the Chinese military parade in Beijing a few days later cannot be overemphasized in the context of the global power shifts we’ve seen this year.

Apart from the constant stream of news emanating from the White House, the US media outlets, for the most part, were focused on the start of Labour Day Weekend, when South Africans celebrate the start of Spring. In the US, September 1 is the official start of their College Football Season, with the pro NFL season officially kicking off on September 4 with a game between the Philadelphia Eagles (the 2024 Super Bowl Champions) and the Dallas Cowboys.

The meeting of the 20 Asian, Middle Eastern, and Russian leaders, with a scene where India’s Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin walking hand in hand towards Xi Jinping, and the ostentatious military parade that took place in Beijing the following Monday, are telling events. They offer a sneak peek into what a post-American, re-aligned world order could look like.

China is sending a clear message to the world with these carefully orchestrated events: We have re-emerged as a global force, we will not capitulate to US economic or military pressure, we offer an alternative to the Western-set global rules, and we’re ready to take the mantle of world leader as the US is stepping back. This is part of Xi’s sweeping vision for China as alternative world leader, positioning China as a trusted alternative.

According to Jonathan Czin, the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings, “Xi is trying to convey China’s role in international affairs. This is clearly signaling… that China has arrived as a great power and it’s not going anywhere”.

Trump’s transactional approach to international relations, characterized by economic pressure, has inadvertently accelerated the very outcome he sought to prevent. Rather than bringing China, Russia, and India to heel, American pressure has pushed them toward each other and toward a shared vision of non-Western global governance.

What is SCO?

SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, was established in 2001. It’s a Eurasian economic and international security organization to promote regional stability and foster economic growth, with similar economic objectives to BRICS, of which South Africa is a member. SCO’s 10 member states include the Central Asian countries, and Russia, Belarus, India, Pakistan, and Iran. These nations represent 40% of the world population.

While SCO’s been fairly subdued based on Western media reports, China’s promise of investment will likely persuade more nations to seek membership. This month’s Summit is an indication of support for China's vision of an alternative international governance system outside of the US-led order that has existed since the end of World War II.

The main outcome was a joint agreement to establish a SCO Development Bank, similar to the Asian Development Bank that finances economic and infrastructure programs. Xi pledged millions in grants to SCO members, and has pushed this for years, with Russia blocking such an organization. In essence, it indicates a new hierarchy with Russia financially subservient to China.

The Image That Changed Everything:

Apart from the expected show of unity among these member nations, the carefully constructed message China presented to the World is that they can be successful without the USA. The sight of Modi, Putin, and Xi, standing side by side - with Kim Yong Un joining Xi and Putin at the military parade - is a startling indication of how the world is changing. It signals a growing divide and elevates the significance of non-Western forums.

There’s a scene of Putin and Modi walking hand-in-hand through a small crowd of leaders and journalists towards Xi, with all three laughing in animated conversation, which is really telling. Whether this was well planned we will never know, but it sends a clear message to the US that Trump’s key diplomatic negotiation power tool, his tariffs, has pushed together the very powers that he hoped to keep in line economically, and separate politically.

This scene represents more than 3 billion of the world’s population of 8 billion people. The largest manufacturer, the largest national population - and by definition, the largest consumer market - and one of the richest countries in terms of natural resources.

From a cultural perspective, when China speaks, it’s important to read the spaces between the lines. The unspoken message here is clear - China is constructing a global system separate from the US-led global order. Given Trump’s 2025 “America First”- international-policy and the rapid erosion of international trust in the US as an economic and security ally, smaller nations are drawn to China’s promise of economic and political stability.

In his speech at the Summit, Xi stated that the world is in a state of flux, and China is the responsible, stable power to guide it into the future. “(We must) oppose the cold war mentality, block confrontation and bullying practices,” he declared, an obvious swipe at Trump, and a reference to current US behavior.

As a footnote, it could certainly be that Putin was galvanized by support from China and the bloc at the recent Summit. Experts believe there’s a direct correlation between the Russian military drone incursion into both Polish and Romanian airspace last week, and the increased assault on the Ukraine.

[END of Part 1]